PRECIOUS METALS

Supply uncertainty to keep gold prices high

Demand to outstrip supply for foreseeable future

 Image: iStock/ma-no

Image: iStock/ma-no

On Wednesday, Wood Mackenzie hosted a metals and mining briefing hosted by global head of metals Simon Morris.

Analysts noted that despite a softening earlier this year, gold as a precious metal will remain one of the strongest commodity performers for a long time yet.

"Gold is a very interesting story," Morris said.

"We've seen a strong rebound in production since a dip last year."

In 2020, about one fifth of mines were hit by COVID-19 causing shutdowns of production.

Morris said miners had now officially recovered in his view, with major projects coming back online.

"We're back up on 2019 production levels now," Morris said.

According to Morris, there are two important points to note in the gold market looking forward.

Over the next few years, around 85 gold projects will come online, which could push some prices down. However, offsetting this will be then closure of "over 100 gold mines internationally".

"Where that additional supply is going to come from, leaves us with some questions," he noted.

This uncertainty will be a boon for investors and miners alike with gold prices expected to hold for the foreseeable future.

However, there's one challenge facing the gold market, namely carbon dioxide.

"Gold produces a lot of carbon," Morris said.

According to WoodMac, its about 25,000 tonnes of Co2 per tonne. As ESG becomes more of an issue in the mining space, demand for low-carbon gold will go up.

"This is a challenge. The production story of gold will provide a few headaches for the industry." 

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