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Shape of things to come

WITH a new year dawning, Michael Pascoe ventures warily into the attic to blow the dust off an ol...

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Once more to the attic, once more to brush away the cobwebs, to chant the voodoo antidote to the voodoo curse for daring to open the old sea chest, once more to flick the various snakes aside and empty another can of Mortein into the seething nest of tarantulas and slam the chest shut again while the poison does its work.

It's hell filing for Australia's Mining Monthly.

And where do the spiders come from each year? What would our quarantine service say if it knew there was an old pirate's chest generating a never-ending supply of exotic and lethal arachnids in a quiet suburban attic? What would Rupert Murdoch say if he knew the males of the species carry markings on the bald patch of their otherwise-hairy abdomens that look remarkably like the mogul? Oh what a web we weave ...

The last scratchings of the eight-legged death throes subside. Safe to open the chest - no! Forgot to repeat the voodoo antidote chant and cop a shaving cream pie from a mechanised voodoo doll - long black hair and a shrunken head with a face somewhat familiar. Wendi? The power has no limits.

Enough. Brush away the crumpled spiders with one of the giveaway News Ltd publications that clog the nation's airports (otherwise they regenerate - the spiders, not the newspapers). And there it is: Olde Pascoe's Almanack, faintly pulsing at the prospect of its annual reopening.

Some say it was penned by a black-hearted Conquistador accustomed to wading knee-deep through Inca blood. Some say it belonged to pirate legend Dirty Dan McFlash, a terror of the Indies who sold his soul for Caribbean real estate (early time share schemes). Some reckon it is the transcript of News of the World phone hackings of a rival tabloid's astrology column. Whatever.

For the year of Our Lord 2012, Olde Pascoe's Almanack alleges:

January

The Olde World (i.e. Europe) implodes. What Communism, Fascism and the Eurovision Song Contest could not achieve, a bunch of tax-dodging Greeks and kindred souls do: the destruction of the continent's economy. General panic. Commodity prices dive.

Marx is heard turning in his grave.

February

China announces vindication of its economic model.

Reroutes monthly shipment of 100 million flat screen TVs to Africa, 200 million Barbie dolls to South America and dumps an indeterminate quantity of surplus iThingy copies out of the back of a plane over Papua New Guinea. Local PNG cargo cult leader Winston Winston says: "Told you so"

International Olympic Committee officials question London's ability to stage the games due to financial and industrial turmoil.

March

Panic subsides given above evidence of international trade patterns adapting quickly to changed circumstances. Commodityprices rally.

Chinese Premier tells US President: Learn from history.

US President asks Chinese Premier: What's history?

April

Mass migration of call centres from India and sandshoe factories from Bangladesh to the mess formerly known as Europe to take advantage of suddenly cheap work force.

Chinese leadership announces increased promotion of domestic demand to insulate the Middle Kingdom from random acts of sovereign debt stupidity damaging export industries.

May

Quality of sandshoes falling fast. Australian customers riot outside Optus headquarters, demanding a return to the good old days of the Mumbai call centre.

Remaining shining light of European manufacturing - the merged Prada/Hermes/Ferrari/Mercedes trinket manufacturer - announces its closure due to lack of credibility. The fakes coming out of Asia are of higher quality, a result of electricity being generally available in Asia. European states claim Asia is enjoying an unfair advantage.

June

The collapse of its call centre market forces India to skip a generation of industrialisation and service industry evolution. The nation's vast battalions of software engineers are set to work perfecting the computerised call centre while the manufacturing sector abandons its staples of small cheap cars and smaller cheaper bangles with the Great Indian Leap Forward into robotics, spacecraft and iThingys. Rare earths market soars.

July

Australian penny-dreadful explorers report massive rare earth prospects. Apparently diddleidium and whatsafarium is rife in every failed gold and magnetite pegging from Cooktown to Albany.

Cyber call centres recapture dominance of the call centre market for India. Last lights go out in Europe.

Grave doubts about the ability of London to stage the Olympics, but IOC unable to find anyone else interested in a last-minute call up.

August

British bulldog spirit triumphs as London stages the retro-Olympics, "Back to Greece Where it All Began" the IOC's new slogan. Just like the original Greek model, all events take place during the day and in the open, due to the lack of electricity. Media coverage is achieved through battery packs and pedal-operated generators. The lack of split-hundredth-of-a-second timing equipment results in multiple dead heats and a record number of medals being awarded, keeping everyone happy. Athletes get into the retro swing of things by competing nude. Record viewing audiences in the developed (ie non-European world). Declared "best Olympics in 3000 years".

September

By the nature of Great Leaps Forward, India's Raja Robots unintentionally destroy the Tiger Spaceships upon lift off. The iThingys exclusively play Bollywood hits, respond in Hindi and only allow browsing of subcontinental web sites. Bollywood booms, but Indian manufacturing sector takes a step back to middle-order technology - manufacturing American cars, washing machines and refrigerators. Korea and China respond by moving further up the value chain into iEverythingys.

October

What was left of US civilian manufacturing industry closes. Few notice as the entire focus of American endeavour is the encirclement of China. Entire output of US economy now consists of aircraft carriers, weapons systems and fast food franchises, all produced with money freshly printed by the Federal Without Reserve Board.

November

The complete industrialisation and urbanisation of Asia combined with the complete militarisation of the US means demand for metals of all descriptions soars. Even magnetite. Old landfill sites the latest prospects for Australian exploration hopefuls.

The resource-rich continents of Australia, Africa and South America enjoy unprecedented prosperity.

Investment banker refugees start arriving in leaky boats, offering to advise on how to best invest money and deploy resources. In the year's only display of bi-partisanship in Australian politics, the government and opposition endorse a policy of blowing aforementioned boats out of the water and machine gunning any survivors.

"We just couldn't risk them," says the PM. "Cane toads were bad enough," says the Opposition Leader.

US presidential election cancelled by the appointment of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as Supreme Commanders and Ultimate Guardians.

December

The last Macquarie Bankers given until Christmas to depart Australia's shores or be summarily dealt with.

India signs an exclusive software support agreement with China, withdrawing all services from the US. This causes the greatest industrial-military complex the world has ever imagined to fall into a screaming heap.

An emergency conference of non-G7 nations is called to consider a program of financial aid for the Olde World. Green movement prevails in its call to let naturetake its course.

But, in the middle of much suffering and sorrow, a spark of hope: Chinese explorers find paintings in a French cave of human figures and animals. "The art is primitive, but it shows promise," declares a Beijing U professor. "They might yet evolve into a sustainable society, one of these centuries. These things take time, we know."

Michael Pascoe is a finance and economics commentator with more than 30 years experience in publishing and broadcasting.

This article first appeared in the January 2012 edition of Australia's Mining Monthly magazine

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