"Supply for most commodities has mostly recovered to levels pre-pandemic, however supply chain constraints and rapid recovery in demand are keeping inventory levels at ports low," Moody's said in its 2022 forecast.
"The continued drawdown of inventories will sustain higher prices."
ESG will remain a key concern for new projects looking to raise funding and win permits, while demand from the new energy sector will rise.
"Carbon transition supports incremental demand for such commodities as copper, nickel and cobalt," Moody's said.
Moody's also noted shortages of microchips and other components, risings costs for labour, energy, and freight, and increased geopolitical risk, which could also hit supply.
Steel demand will remain strong in 2022.
"Robust demand and improved utilisation support steel prices and spreads above historical levels in Europe in 2022, while steady growth in demand in the Asia-Pacific region will mute the impact of narrowing product spreads," Moody's said.
And thermal coal demand is not going anywhere in the short term, despite long term ESG concerns.
"Growth in the Asia-Pacific region will continue, along with the ongoing secular decline in North America and Europe," Moody's said. "Thermal coal prices remain robust historically despite a recent drop."
