PRECIOUS METALS

Bank forecasts $2200/oz gold for next year

Bank ups precious metals forecasts but says copper equities are better value than gold equivalents

Staff reporter

This article is 4 years old. Images might not display.

Jefferies has increased its forecasts for both gold and silver in the near to mid-term.

The bank upped its forecast for average third quarter gold prices by 5.5% to $1925/oz, and for 2020 as a whole by 5.7% to $1843/oz. The bank said it expected prices to strengthen further into the New Year.

"Interest rates are expected to remain a supportive factor in the medium term, with the view the Fed will keep rates near zero through 2022," said Jefferies.

The bank noted that over the past 12 months, the correlation between the gold price and the inverse of the US 10-year real rate has been a 0.98, "well above an already strong historical correlation of 0.75".

While the bank was bullish on the yellow metal out to 2021, it acknowledged a further recovery in global growth "would likely be a negative for gold and is one reason why we forecast a decline in the gold price after 2021".

The bank forecast an average price of $2000/oz in 2022.

Jefferies said its favourite gold major was Newmont, "followed closely by Barrick". However, it said better value was to be had in copper mining equities, especially Freeport and First Quantum.

Jefferies also tweaked its silver forecasts upwards, increasing its expected average third quarter prices by 31.6% to $25/oz, and for 2021 by 50% to $30/oz.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

editions

Mining Company ESG Index: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The Mining Company ESG Index report provides an in-depth evaluation of ESG performance of 61 of the world's largest mining companies. Using a robust framework, it assesses each company across 9 meticulously weighted indicators within 6 essential pillars.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Global Leadership Report 2024: Net Zero

Gain insights into decarbonisation trends and strategies from interviews with 20+ top mining executives and experts plus an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Project Pipeline Handbook 2024

View our 50 top mining projects, handpicked using a unique, objective selection process from a database of 450+ global assets.

editions

MiningNews.net Research Report 2024

Access a multi-pronged tool to identify critical risks and opportunities in Australia’s mining industry.