PRECIOUS METALS

Seasonal factors set to lift gold

China and India look set to contribute to gold's further upward march, according to UBS

Elliott Holley

This article is 5 years old. Images might not display.

Gold has had a good third quarter, rising 8%, according to UBS. Two factors suggest gold may be set for further rises in the immediate future.

In India, the monsoon season brought higher rainfall than usual, which will boost agricultural incomes and thus drive increased purchase of gold.

Meanwhile in China, forward contracts have surged to record highs on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and there has been a build-up in China gold ETF holdings since late May, suggesting a pick-up in investor interest.

Physical demand in China and India has been lacklustre due to the high prices, which are the highest consumers in China have faced since 2013 and near the all-time high for India. Higher import duties in India since July have not helped. But UBS' analysis suggests the demand issue is bottoming out and a turnaround may be on the cards.

"With gold prices holding well, the fear-of-missing-out is likely rising," said Joni Teves, strategist at UBS's global research team.  "This is encouraging and implies that any downward pressure coming from macro factors over the remainder of the year is likely to be absorbed by fundamental demand."

UBS added that US-listed funds had been behind two-thirds (68%) of the inflows into gold ETFs so far this year.

"The continuation of gold's uptrend should eventually attract more investment interest as well as momentum buyers," said Teves.

Archived article: image not displayed.

 

TOPICS:

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

editions

Mining Company ESG Index: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The Mining Company ESG Index report provides an in-depth evaluation of ESG performance of 61 of the world's largest mining companies. Using a robust framework, it assesses each company across 9 meticulously weighted indicators within 6 essential pillars.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Global Leadership Report 2024: Net Zero

Gain insights into decarbonisation trends and strategies from interviews with 20+ top mining executives and experts plus an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Project Pipeline Handbook 2024

View our 50 top mining projects, handpicked using a unique, objective selection process from a database of 450+ global assets.

editions

MiningNews.net Research Report 2024

Access a multi-pronged tool to identify critical risks and opportunities in Australia’s mining industry.