Gold price bottomed outside US: GFMS

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According to the annual GFMS survey, the price of gold is expected to slip towards $US1100 per ounce ($A1432/oz) over the middle part of the year before bouncing back late to average $1170/oz over 2015.

However due to the rising value of the dollar in combination with monetary policy outside the US, non US dollar-denominated gold prices are expected to have bottomed out.

The US dollar gold spot price is currently $1207/oz, while the Australian dollar spot price is $A1574/oz.

The longer term outlook for US dollar gold prices is better, with an average price of $US1250/oz forecast over 2016 as Asian markets recover from a period of sharp demand contraction last year.

According to GFMS, the fall in demand was the result of over-purchasing in 2013, particularly in China. But signs improved for the market as the gold price began to stabilise late in 2014 and into this year.

Chinese demand fell back significantly on 2013 levels, with gold jewellery consumption in the nation down 35% and fabrication down 31%.

Investment in the coin and bar market was down 40% year-on-year, “driven particularly by the Asian markets, reflecting the action of 2013 and unease over the price outlook”

According to GFMS, China and India accounted for 54% of the world’s jewellery, bar and metal demand last year.

Official sector gold purchases were up 14% in 2014 to 466t, with Russia purchasing a record 173t over the year. Demand is expected to continue from this sector over the medium term.

In terms of mining, GFMS found production of gold expanded to 3133t globally over 2014 as previously commissioned projects ramped up. However, output is expected to flatten this year before beginning a significant decline.

Average global all-in sustaining costs fell by 25% to $1314/oz. However, this figure was a more modest 3% when heavy impairments incurred in 2013 were taken into account.

Cash costs also fell by 3% to $749/oz, a decline attributed to “advantageous foreign exchange rate movements and higher processed grades, while labour costs and lower by-product credits were adverse factors”

At a corporate level, the GFMS survey found the total value of deals fell 9% in 2014 on the previous year to $7.3 billion, as miners focused on rationalising their portfolios and reducing debt.

A total of 103t of gold was hedged in 2014, the highest rate of hedging since 1999, but this was the work of a small amount of producers and was not expected to become a widespread trend.

“This year may see net hedging, but it is likely to be of a comparable scale to that of 2014,” the survey said.

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