Last week the Mining Journal team visited Cape Town for Investing in Mining Indaba.
Here's what we learned:
Most attendees reported a busy Indaba. Although mining shares are still in the doldrums, even for gold miners who are enjoying high metal prices, attendance was high, and meeting schedules packed. Possibly the two are not unconnected. With equity investors otherwise engaged, other deals are looking more attractive, with many saying the consolidation trend in the industry is far from over.
Crime
There was a big emphasis on illegal mining, crime and corruption this year. We published this piece on illegal mining - but we have more to come.
What we didn't publish, but was interesting was, in the same panel on illegal mining, Richards Bay Mineral managing director Werner Duvenage said that the murder of two executives was down to procurement issues.
Up until now, it had been assumed that the assassination of RBM GM Nico Swart, who was shot to death in May 2021 on his way to work, was linked to the company holding back community trust payments.
Swart's assassination followed the 2016 killing of RBM human resources general manager Ronny Nzimande.
The lexicon around trusts and community payments is very interesting. Delegates that we spoke to, who work on the ground in South Africa, said that there was "desperation" in some communities for the fund and procurement contracts.
This led RBM's Duvenage to underscore that he was the only one that had access to trust information.
"We have taken very specific steps around how we manage the trusts issue. Only one person talks about the trusts and that's me. You will only find one name on the affidavits and that's mine. We have made it very clear there is no one else you can fiddle with that is going to impact where we are going with the trusts," he said in a media briefing.
Transport
Elsewhere, transport was a theme.
Trafigura signed on the line for the Lobito railway - but there were mutterings that it is *quite* a complex project and the timelines are too tight.
Elsewhere, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the country has a "clear plan" to address the logistics crisis, meaning the government would work with the private sector to unravel the crisis.
Like other "clear plans" that were feted over the course of the four-day conference and trade fair, this one was met with scepticism.
"We are all acutely aware that we face strong headwinds, and a number of persistent challenges are impeding mining performance," Ramaphosa said (perhaps intentionally failing to mention that a lot of the challenges are perpetuated by what is perceived as an ineffective state body).
Indeed, the mood in South African mining remains downbeat. The main issues, including a terrible 2023 for Transnet, and stubborn issues with Eskom have been well discussed. But there was also widespread scepticism over the government's pledge to end the licencing backlog. One attendee pointed out the some of the companies contracted by the mining ministry had no record in the sector, meaning Gwede Mantashe's reassurances that the backlog would be cleared rang hollow.
Elsewhere, we spoke to contractors who secure services (legal, clerical and at site) for miners across the continent and they bemoaned the tightly-written legislation in South Africa which made it hard to advance projects quickly.
In short, miners and services are suffering from a lack of regular power, poor transport links and licensing issues, as well as with restrictions on which services can be procured.
Zambia
Lots of Ministers emphasised that they are open for business - Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema visited and told attendees that they could "invest with confidence and power the future".
On the conference stage there was plenty of good sentiment on Zambia, as we have reported. But on the sidelines, and at countless drinks receptions, the mood was a bit more mooted.
Multiple sources who are active in Zambia reported that the country's new mining cadastre, which was supposed to reform the sector, is proving a disappointment. In particular, the federal cadastre is reportedly proving less transparent, and less reliable a way to bid for licences than some had hoped.
Endeavour
The sudden dismissal of Endeavour Mining chief executive Sebastien de Montessus last month was widely discussed. Montessus was reportedly spotted in Cape Town during the Indaba, suggesting he is not likely to fade into the background. Although de Montessus was fired over an alleged irregular payment, the company has also released reports of alleged but unspecified harassment complaints.
But aside from the soap opera of such a dramatic dismissal, Indaba attendees were busy speculating about the next steps for Endeavour. De Montessus has guided Endeavour in a rapid expansion across West Africa. If the company is to continue its trajectory they will need to find an experienced miner who can work across some of the most challenging political environments, preferably a French speaker with on the ground knowledge.
And if not, then some see M&A on the horizon. Endeavour may need to dispose of some of its assets to shrink its jurisdictional scope. Otherwise Endeavour, which has lost about a quarter of its value since de Montessus was dismissed, may find itself a takeover target.
Companies saying things
Elsewhere, Anglo American's Duncan Wanblad spoke of resilience in his key note address. If anyone was in need of a good Mining Indaba, it was him. The London-headquartered mining giant had a horrendous year in 2023, and there are no signs yet that 2024 is turning out any better.
Wanblad's keynote address to the conference was on the topic of resilience. Anglo shareholders, who have seen the value of their shares halve in the last year, may be excused some cynicism. Read our take on this here.
And graphite producers and juniors spoke frankly about the complexities of pricing the mineral.
We spoke to some disruptive juniors in the field - with interviews from Emmerson who have developed a new processing technology, metal recyclers DEScycle and Cote d'Ivoire lithium junior Firering Strategic Resources, not to mention an interview with Empire Metals, who may have found the world's strangest titanium resource.
And we also spoke to Petra Diamonds, who say that there's enough room in the market for both lab-grown and natural diamonds.