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Zijin is offering A10c cash for Phoenix, while on Thursday, Evolution announced plans to make a 12c per share cash and scrip bid.
Phoenix has said it wouldn’t recommend Zijin’s offer in its current form, but is yet to make a formal recommendation and an independent expert’s report is being prepared as part of its bidder’s statement.
Market watchers speculated that Evolution’s bid may spur Zijin to up its offer, but so far the company appears to be sticking to its guns.
Eagle Research Advisory analyst Keith Good noted that Zijin initially offered 20c for Norton Gold Fields, but eventually paid 25c per share.
“Zijin certainly has plenty of cash, revealing in its Diggers 2015 presentation that it had a war-chest of around $2.2 billion for acquisitions,” he said in a note on Friday.
Zijin noted Evolution’s proposed bid, but said its all-cash offer provided certainty while Evolution’s scrip component meant the offer value was subject to fluctuations.
But Goode said the scrip component allowed Phoenix shareholders to participate in future upside.
Phoenix noted that Evolution’s offer was a 20% premium to Zijin’s and did not contain a minimum acceptance condition, unlike Zijin’s, which requires 50.1% acceptances.
But Phoenix said Evolution’s combined cash and scrip offer over Zijin’s straight cash bid was something to consider, as well as its condition that the spot gold price not drop below $1250 an ounce.
Spot gold is currently more than $1590/oz.
The prize for both is plant feed from Phoenix’s projects – Zijin’s nearby Paddington mill is in desperate need of additional tonnes to maintain production, while Evolution’s Mungari plant is just next door.
Credit Suisse analyst Michael Slifirski viewed the potential acquisition of Phoenix as a positive for Evolution.
“La Mancha’s brand new mill is the closest and lowest cost mill in the region and can extract far greater value from any discovery along the shear,” he said.
“Zijin’s Paddington mill is extremely old and has an elevated maintenance cost that makes it a high-cost processing facility in addition to the greater haul distance.”
Phoenix sent a letter to shareholders on Friday, advising them to take no action on either bid.
Shares in Phoenix closed at 12c on Friday.