Prolonged inflation was ranked as the top global risk for 2023, with a score of 70%, followed by high energy prices (60%) and an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war (47%).
"The main risks identified are closely related to each other, with energy prices driving inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war leading to higher energy prices," CRU said.
The energy crisis is factoring into a pessimistic view among CRU's metals and mining clients regarding the outlook for electric vehicle sales -which is a growing source of demand for a range of metals.
The energy concerns, along with a lack of microchips and charging infrastructure, led to 49% of the clients estimating that EV sales will account for 14-16% of the car market this year, while 17% believe it will be lower still.
This compares to CRU's forecast of 18% and the 2021 and 2022 results of 8% and 14%, respectively.
Jefferies estimates that total global EV market penetration was 13% last year and will rise to about 17% this year.
Jefferies expects the EV market share to grow to 22% in 2024, 27% in 2025, and 42% by 2030.
In terms of EV sales, the yearly 2022-2025 and 2030 forecasts from Jefferies were 10.21 million, 13.38 million, 17.85 million, 23.23 million, and 38.02 million, respectively.
"Regionally, customers in the Americas are less optimistic, a likely reflection of the higher existing EV market share in Europe and China, but it could also indicate that the US green policy agenda has only partly filtered through to people's perceptions," CRU said.
From 2022 to 2023, North America's penetration into the EV market is forecast by Jefferies to rise from 6% to 8%, the EU's from 21% to 26%, and China's from 29% to 40%.
In the December edition of Australia's chief economist's Resources and Energy Quarterly, it noted that China's EV sales had been spurred on by tax exemptions and subsidiary programs, with the average price only 10% greater than that of a traditional car.
"EV sales in Europe appear to be less rosy, with EV penetration stalling in 2022. This has been attributed to long wait times due to supply chain issues, a reduction in tax incentives for some jurisdictions, and price spikes for some battery metals," it said.
Meanwhile, CRU's survey found that its respondents were also more pessimistic when it came to global growth.
Fifty-two percent said they expect global GDP to grow by no more than 1% in 2023, compared to CRU's outlook of 1.6%.
CRU's outlook is similar to the World Bank's, which stands at 1.7%.
Thirty-five percent of those surveyed said they expect global growth between 0% and 1%, while 17% expect GDP to fall - "with clients in the Americas the most pessimistic", CRU said.
Goldman Sachs surveyed audience members at its 31st annual Global Strategy Conference in London, asking if they expect a recession in the US this year. Fifty-seven percent responded that they do, and 43% said they do not.
"This is slightly more optimistic than consensus where the average recession probability stands at 65%. This relative ‘bullishness' might be due to the market YTD and the recent good news on the growth-inflation mix," Goldman said.
CRU's survey found that the majority expected inflation to average between 3-5% in the US and 4-6% in the eurozone, which is generally in line with CRU's own forecasts, of 4.1% and 5.5%, respectively.
Goldman asked a similar question and found that 57% of clients expect US inflation to end 2023 between 3-4% with risks skewed to the upside, with 21% foreseeing inflation above 4% at year-end.
"Supply chain recovery finally appears to be yielding the deflationary payback that has been deferred for more than a year by a series of further pandemic - and war-related disruptions," Goldman said.
"In addition, more moderate commodity price inflation, falling transportation costs, and downward pressure on import prices from dollar appreciation should also help to reduce core PCE goods inflation," the group added.
In the Goldman survey, 73% of respondents said they expect a recession in the Euro Area, while 27% don't.
Goldman said that its economists do not expect a recession in the Euro Area and expect real GDP growth of 0.1% in Q1 and Q2,+0.2% in Q3, and 0.4% in Q4 - implying 0.6% for 2023.
"Weakness remains for the moment due to high inflation weighing on real disposable incomes and tight financial conditions," it said.
CRU head economist Alex Tucket noted that as the world's focus has turned to the Russia-Ukraine war, climate-related risks have slipped down the agenda. And the same can be said for deteriorating relations between the US and China.
Only 11% of those surveyed cited the former as a downside risk, and just 4% noted the latter, CRU said.
In a month's time, it'll be one year since Russia's large-scale invasion of its neighbour, Ukraine, which brought a major escalation to the conflict that began in 2014. There remains no end in sight.
