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Flooding impacts

BRISBANE was spared 1974-magnitude flooding this morning and power could be restored to central b...

Blair Price
Flooding impacts

The anticipated early morning flood peak in Brisbane this morning was 4.46 metres at 4am according to the Department of Meteorology - almost a metre below the flood peak of 5.45m which caused significant damage to the city in 1974.

The department is forecasting waters to recede in the city until rising with the afternoon tide to peak at about 4.2m by 4pm.

Tomorrow the floodwaters are expected to reach 3.2m at 5am.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has told reporters that parts of Brisbane represent a post-war zone.

The AAP reported that about 120,000 homes are without power, and more than 15,000 residential and business properties have been hit by significant flooding.

Bligh told Sky News there are entire suburbs where only rooftops can be seen and industrial parks and railway stations were underwater.

The Premier is also warning it might be months before some residents could move back into their homes.

Coal chain impacts

While there are various impacts to coal mines in central and southeast Queensland during this wet season, the closure of the Blackwater rail system alone has caused many force majeures.

Mines isolated by the closure of the Blackwater system include Kestrel, Rolleston, Gregory, Curragh, Minerva and Cook as well as Jellinbah, East, Blackwater and Ensham.

But Queensland Rail National told Bloomberg the Blackwater network could be reopened next week after inspecting the damaged track yesterday.

The news services also reported that about 132 vessels are floating off Queensland, which would account for about 50% of the global seaborne metallurgical coal supply.

Yesterday Macquarie Research analysts said bringing the 66 million tonnes per annum capacity Blackwater line back to service was likely to take two weeks.

"We would note that there is a risk that significant structural damage may have occurred, which would prolong this outage significantly," Macquarie said.

"For every week the Blackwater railway is down, 0.8Mt of metallurgical and 0.3Mt of thermal will be lost to the market.

"Focus is now on the mines themselves, and how quickly they can restart mining operations and put coal on the railways.

"With indications that the supply chain is well destocked (both at mines and ports), the chances are export volumes could get worse before they get better."

The broker believes steel mill customers are better prepared than when floods struck the state's coal industry in 2008, "preventing panic"

But Macquarie still expects met coal to trade at a "strong premium to cost support" as steel production grows in China, India, Brazil and South Korea.

"Indeed, the biggest impact of the recent rains could be a delay in the preparatory work needed for future coal expansion or even sustaining current rates, pushing the impact into the medium-long term."

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