The scoping study was based on a production target of 275,600 tonnes of nickel at 0.84%, comprising nearly two thirds indicated resources.
Jaguar is envisaged to produce 203,300t of contained nickel, or about 20,000t of 15.5% nickel concentrate per annum, over an initial 10 years at C1 costs of US$2.41 per pound and life-of-mine all-in sustaining costs of $2.97/lb.
Pre-production capital costs are estimated at about $178 million, including contingency.
Using a base case nickel price assumption of $7.50/lb, or $16,530/t, life-of-mine revenue is forecast to be $2.42 billion and EBITDA is expected to be about $1.23 billion, with average annual pre-tax free operating cashflow of $109 million.
The study generates a post-tax net present value of $453 million, at an 8% discount rate, or about A$604 million, a post-tax internal rate of return of 54% and a payback period of 1.9 years.
"The $604 million project NPV is approximately 30% higher than our own estimate ($458 million) for the base case Jaguar development scenario," Argonaut Securities said.
"Project development parameters mostly in line with our expectations. AISC were slightly lower than expected and a lower discount rate used."
Centaurus managing director Darren Gordon described the economics as compelling.
"Our goal is to transform Centaurus into a new-generation nickel sulphide mining company in Brazil, capable of delivering more than 20,000 tonne per annum of Class-1 nickel sulphides to global markets for many years to come," he said.
"The scoping study clearly shows that Jaguar has all the attributes required to achieve this goal, and to do so in a sustainable and responsible manner that ensures we meet the highest possible ESG standards."
Gordon said the low C1 costs meant Jaguar would be profitable under any future nickel price scenario.
"The low C1 cash costs reflect both the significant open pit volumes and the low operating cost environment in Brazil, and results in high operating margins that will be resilient to fluctuations in the nickel price and exchange rates," he said.
A value-added scoping study into the inclusion of a pressure oxidisation circuit will be released in April.
The company will move to a prefeasibility study, which will begin immediately, and will aim for a definitive feasibility study and final investment decision next year.
Centaurus is targeting first production at the end of 2024. The project will employ 1000 people during construction as close to 700 people during operations.
"Most major investment bank research suggests that the demand for Class-1 nickel at this time will be strongly outstripping supply - which should be favourable for nickel producers, particularly those like Centaurus that can sustainably produce nickel from sulphide sources at very low operating costs," Gordon said.
"At a nickel price of US$9/lb, which is forecast by a number of the investment banks for the middle of this decade when operations at Jaguar are targeted to commence, the project's post tax NPV would rise to circa A$1.01 billion, with an IRR of about 80%."
Centaurus is also confident of further resource growth with more than 65,000m of drilling targeted in 2021.
Four diamond rigs are currently operating, with a reverse circulation rig to be added in the next few weeks to focus on greenfields targets.
Argonaut has a speculative buy rating and $1.27 price target for Centaurus but is reviewing its models in light of today's news.
Centaurus shares were up 1.3% to 82.5c, valuing the company at about $270 million.
