EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT

Sirius the dazzling star of 2012

IN A mostly gloomy year for the industry, it's good to see a success story. Arguably, no company ...

Kristie Batten
Sirius the dazzling star of 2012

Prior to the discovery, Sirius was just another cash-strapped explorer, but the July 26 news of visible sulphides in a drillhole at its Fraser Range project set off the sort of meteoric rise not seen since Sandfire Resources and its DeGrussa discovery in 2010.

On that day, Sirius shares jumped a staggering 690% to A45c – from its previous price of 5.7c.

The discovery, known as Nova, sparked plenty of interest, despite the lagging nickel market.

Shares gained a further 40% the following day and another 92% the next week, after which Sirius raised a quick $7.6 million at 76c per share.

By the end of August, Sirius shares were at $1.41, a rise of almost 2400% in a little over a month.

On September 26, two months after the discovery, Sirius announced the widest hit yet at Nova, sending its shares up to $2.14 – or over 3600% up on the price prior to the discovery was announced.

With those sorts of movements increasingly rare in this market, Sirius was quickly heralded as the market darling of the year.

Bennett was still in shock in when he presented at the Australian Nickel Conference on October 4.

“At the start of this two months ago, we were just three guys in a shed in Balcatta,” he said.

Later that month, Sirius took out the Discovery of the Year award at the Mines and Money Sydney conference, beating out Papillon Resources for its Fekola gold project and Syrah Resources’ success with the Balama graphite project.

Sirius managing director Mark Bennett accepted the award and said Nova was shaping up as a monster deposit.

“At this stage, each drill hole adds 10,000 tonnes of nickel. There have been quite a few merchant bankers spotted in the affluent Perth suburb of Balcatta,” Bennett joked.

Sirius continued to release results that showed Nova was shaping up as a noteworthy nickel deposit and its shares continued to rise.

On November 7, shares hit an all-time high of $3.28, cementing Sirius as one of the biggest success stories in years.

Shares have dropped off slightly since, trading in the range of $2.10-$2.52 this month.

So far in December, Sirius has identified a large new conductor around the same size as Nova, 20km to the west of it.

The company has also announced a new zone of mineralisation, dubbed Tethys, and said it was confident of finding further deposits in the area.

Sirius is hoping it can take Nova to production as quickly as Sandfire did with DeGrussa. Last week it raised $44 million to fast-track development, despite already having about $16 million cash in the bank from the exercise of options, mainly from major shareholder, legendary prospector Mark Creasy.

Creasy also owns 30% of Fraser Range.

Bennett said it was satisfying to have put the company in such a strong position just four months after the discovery of Nova.

"Sirius now has a very strong balance sheet and our team can now aggressively explore around the Nova nickel-copper deposit to add additional value without the overhang of financing risk,” Bennett said.

“We are now fully funded for the entire resource definition and feasibility process, through to a potential future project financing decision.”

Sirius has five drill rigs on site to delineate a maiden indicated resource for Nova, as well as continue to accelerate drilling on other targets.

Last week, RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage on Sirius with a $3 price target

“In our view, Nova is one of the best discoveries in Australia for a very long time and we believe it has the potential to become a quality mine as early as 2016,” analyst Geoff Breen said.

“We estimate a maiden resource of at least 12 million tonnes at 2.5% nickel and 1% copper by April 2013 and before December 2013, a reserve of 10Mt containing around 250,000t nickel and around 100,000t copper, with $350 million capex that assumes equity of $150 million in the first half of 2014 and $170 million of debt.”

RBC estimates production of 23,000 tonnes per annum of nickel, as well as 10,000tpa copper at low cash costs of about $US2.50 per pound of nickel over a 10-year mine life – generating a 48% internal rate of return of a 2.5-year payback period.

“We see many similarities with the discovery and development of Sandfire Resources' DeGrussa copper mine and believe it is a good guide to Sirius' path to production,” Breen said.

An early estimate from Hartleys, which carried out the placement for Sirius, suggested a possible resource of 9.5Mt at 3.8% nickel equivalent for 163 million pounds of nickel equivalent.

Meanwhile, Patersons Securities recently named Sirius a “rising star” and made its own estimates about the potential size of the deposit.

Patersons’ preliminary estimate for Nova was 7.2Mt at 2.6% nickel and 1.1% copper

Importantly, the analysts believe the Nova discovery has province scale potential.

Other explorers with tenements in the area hope this is true, though many have benefited merely from “nearology”, without needing to drill a single hole.

The day after the discovery, Matsa Resources received a price query from the Australian Securities Exchange for a 50% jump in its share price to 18c.

Shares continued to rise with Sirius, hitting a 49.5c high last month.

Matsa’s Symons Hill project is just 6km away. Yesterday the company announced that a VTEM survey had identified a number of conductors that could represent nickel-copper sulphide mineralisation, which supported a previously announced nickel-copper soil anomaly.

Shares in Buxton Resources also jumped immediately after the initial Nova announcement and the company has since confirmed multiple VTEM conductors at its Widowmaker project near Nova.

At the peak of 62c, Buxton shares were up 254% since July 26. Shares last traded at a respectable 46c.

Sheffield Resources’ Red Bull project, 17km from Nova, also puts it in the right neighbourhood and its shown in the company’s share price.

Shares were at 30.5c on July 26, but have since reached a peak of 71c and were last trading at 58c.

The same goes for Enterprise Metals, which rose from 11c to 26.5c not too long after the Nova discovery announcement, based on its own Fraser Range project.

The stock last traded at 17c.

The discovery has also helped boost two newcomers in what has been a tough market for initial public offerings.

Boadicea Resources, which has ground adjacent to Sirius, debuted on the ASX at a 182% premium after initially struggling to raise the $2 million it needed to list.

Since then, Windward Resources, also backed by Creasy, has enjoyed a positive listing, with shares currently sitting at a 20% premium to the listing price.

There are a number of other companies in the area, including Forge Resources, RAM Resources, Oroya Resources and Pioneer Resources.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

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