Australia is already the world's largest lithium producer, but, according to the federal government's chief economist, export earnings will increase from A$1.1 billion in the 2021 financial year to nearly $14 billion in FY23.
That's due to the surge in prices but also an uplift in production.
The government expects spodumene prices to average US$2730 per tonne this year and $3280/t next year.
Prices are expected to fall to $2490/t in 2024, resulting in an FY24 easing of export earnings to roughly A$13 billion.
"We expect lithium hydroxide prices to lift from US$17,370 a tonne in 2021 to $38,575 a tonne in 2022 and $51,510 in 2023, and moderate to $37,650 by 2024," the government's Resources and energy quarterly said.
"Australia's lithium production is forecast to grow from 247,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2020-21 to 387,000 tonnes in 2022-23 and 469,000 tonnes of LCE in 2023-24."
Overall, Australia's resource and energy export earnings are expected to reach a record A$450 billion in the current financial year, up from the previous record of $422 billion in FY22.
Export earnings are forecast to fall to $375 billion in FY24.
"High energy prices and the strength of the US dollar against the Australian dollar are driving a surge in export earnings," the report said.
"Energy prices are elevated largely because of a looming drop in exports of gas, coal and oil from Russia, one of the world's largest exporters of energy products."
Despite falling export volumes, LNG earnings are forecast to reach around $90 billion in FY23 and thermal and metallurgical coal are expected to earn around $120 billion.
Lower prices are expected to see Australia's iron ore export earnings ease from $134 billion in FY22 to $119 billion in FY23, and then to $95 billion in FY24.
Gold earnings are expected to increase by $2 billion to $25 billion this financial year due to rising production.
A forecast rise in uranium prices to US$60 per pound by 2024 and the reopening of Boss Energy's Honeymoon mine is expected to drive an increase in export values from A$564 million in FY22 to around $880 million by FY24.
"Australia is well placed in the push towards low emission technologies, with exports of metals used intensively in low emission technologies (copper, nickel and lithium) expected to generate around $33 billion in export earnings in 2022-23, double what they earned in 2020-21," the report said.
The government is forecasting flat to modestly weaker base metals prices.
