ENERGY MINERALS

Commodity among top GS trends

Goldman Sachs picks a commodity among its seven global trends for the future

Kristie Batten

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In a list of trends that covered space travel, college and a possible cure for cancer, Goldman flagged lithium as the “new gasoline”, due to its lightness, energy density and abundance.

“These unique properties ideally position it for portable energy storage applications that will be a key enabler of the electric car revolution and replace gasoline as the primary source of transportation fuel,” it said last month.

Goldman is expecting electric cars to make up 22% of all vehicles by 2025, up from less than 3% today.

Total global demand is currently 160,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per annum, but Goldman says a 1% increase in battery electric vehicle penetration would increase demand by 70,000tpa.

Metals consultancy Roskill is expecting demand to grow to 290,000tpa by 2020.

Goldman says one of the key factors in growing demand is the falling prices of battery packs for electric cars.

SP Angel says costs fell by 14% per annum between 2007 and 2014 to around $US450 per kilowatt hour and are heading towards the $150/kWh threshold which would make electric vehicles more competitive.

Goldman says a drop to $150/kWh by 2020 is feasible.

Australia is already a major producer of lithium through the world-class Greenbushes mine, but there are several mines under development.

Neometals and Mineral Resources are building the Mt Marion lithium mine for first production by the end of the year, while General Mining Corporation is refurbishing the mothballed Mt Cattlin mine for recommissioning in March.

Pilbara Minerals is aiming to complete a definitive feasibility study on the Pilgangoora project by mid-year for first production in June 2017.

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