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Today, the atmosphere is anxious. The mood around all world markets has joined a resources sector that our Global Finance Report 2019 suggests has been struggling for many months. There are fears for global growth and with those fears comes concern over underlying demand for commodities.
As we one of our columnists, John Robertson, has been saying in these pages for some time, all the macroeconomic indicators are there to suggest we tasted the top of the most recent commodity cycle in the first half of 2018. The recovery may have petered out before it really got going.
The washout from the GFR 2019 certainly supports this view.
We looked at IPOs, secondary raisings, alternative finance, and investor sentiment in a weighty analysis of the financing landscape for resources firms and there is, regrettably, very little to smile about for corporates.
Australia saw stronger activity year-on-year in its public markets but that success was conspicuous against a poor year for London and a bloodbath in Toronto. Other markets not traditionally known for hosting much resources action but capable of large, one-off efforts to collectively make significant contributions had little or no presence in the resources sector over the 12 months.
Alternative financing executives we spoke to were no longer looking over their shoulders for a crowing of the financing space by deepening public equity pools and increased interest from commercial lenders. Instead, they bemoaned the lack of support from these traditional sources of capital in sharing the risk and filling the capital structure.
Investors, meanwhile, reported a generally poor performance from their resources equities, though they were optimistic about the 12 months ahead and institutions in particular appeared - counterintuitively - to be finding some tolerance for risk again.
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