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According to the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science’s Resources and Energy Quarterly, Australia’s resource and energy earnings should increase by 30% to a record $A204 billion, and remain steady at those levels in FY18.
The spike is attributed to increases in coal and iron ore prices, and expected higher LNG exports.
The estimate for iron ore exports was revised up to $62 billion, from $54 billion, a rise of 30% year-on-year.
The department is forecasting the iron ore price to average $US58 a tonne this financial year, and $53/t this calendar year, revised up from $45/t.
It is expected to decline over the course of this year and average just $49/t next year due to growing supply and more subdued growth in global demand.
Metallurgical coal exports are expected to be worth $A20 billion in FY17 after prices peaked at $US311.25/t in November.
The government has forecast the Australian benchmark metallurgical coal contract to average $186/t this year, a 63% increase on last year, before dropping to $109/t next year.
“While the surge in bulk commodity prices has lasted longer than initially expected, given the temporary nature of many of these factors, the prices of metallurgical and thermal coal and iron ore are expected to decline in early to mid-2017,” the report said.
“Efficiency drives initiated by most producers (to counter the impact of the general downturn in commodity prices) mean Australia’s producers are well placed to meet demand for resources and energy over the next year.”
