It comes after a dismal 2015 for the resources sector, with metals slumping to pre-global financial crisis lows – and equities falling further.
Despite steeper-than-expected commodity price falls last year, miners have so far largely resisted cutting production.
There are exceptions, like Freeport McMoRan and Glencore, but most of the majors have continued production at full-speed.
“While weaker than expected demand from China has not helped, we believe the decisions by many of the miners to pursue a strategy of continued production in an effort to rebalance the trade through forced closure of high cost producers has taken longer than expected,” UBS analysts said in a report released just before Christmas.
“High barriers to exit, cheap debt and a belief in a price rebound have hindered closures.”
UBS called for discipline from miners this year.
“With the possibility of continued weak demand into H116, industry discipline is going to be needed in our view to see commodity prices higher, but we suspect many miners believe there is further cost-out to be had, so closures may yet be further away,” it said.
Analysts said 2016 would be a telling year for the Australian mining scene.
“If commodity prices remain at current levels, then we believe some tough decisions are going to need to be taken,” UBS said.
“We expect BHP to be prudent and cut the dividend in February 2016, forecasting a 50% cut to US31c per share per half for FY16 to retain balance sheet strength.”
Analysts from UK investment bank Investec, known for their bearish views, echoed UBS’ calls for discipline.
“We agree that 2016 will be a tough year but we see the industry finally responding to five years of pain,” Investec said overnight.
“This year will hopefully see some bold decisions by mining leaders which will shape the industry to be ready to survive the next five years.
“The new industry will need to be positioned to thrive despite little assistance from rising prices. Mining will not stop – it just needs to get its house in order.”
Investec warned that if current conditions prevail, the mining sector will look very different a year from now.
“With one highly leveraged trading company (Noble Group) already having been downgraded to junk status and capital hard to come by we see the new year as one of consolidation, probably amongst assets rather than on a company wide-scale,” analysts said.
“The landscape is expected to be widely altered but we see the most likely events during the next few months as being: a) further downgrades by credit ratings agencies – now that Moody’s has taken the lead b) asset value write downs during the coming results season c) further dividend cuts d) a total cessation of expansionary capex across the industry.”
Investec said it was watching for a “suitably catastrophic event” in the mining industry, which would send the signal to buy.
