CAPITAL MARKETS

Another step back, but it could be worse

IT WAS another rocky day on the share market, with resource stocks generally following the lead o...

Kate Haycock

Nevertheless, at least the situation here still seems tolerable, which is more than can be said for the United States.

With President Bush calling a crisis summit as he seeks to drum up congressional support for the $US700 billion US Treasury bailout plan, American markets fell lower again overnight.

The bill is expected to pass but with amendments, including an amendment over how much oversight the US Treasury should have in how the bailout money is used.

One ray of sunshine has come from news that multi-billionaire investor Warren Buffett has invested in Goldman Sachs, with some suggesting his $5 billion buy-in is a sign that dawn, while not quite lighting the horizon, is not too far away.

Back on domestic shores, our own Reserve Bank has been throwing more money into the financial system to keep cash – the lifeblood of the markets – pumping around the system.

The RBA injected $A511 million into the money markets, and yesterday also announced a $US10 billion foreign-exchange swap line with the US Federal Reserve.

The RBA also said today things weren’t so bad for Aussie banks, but warned that things were still a bit “strained”.

Not exactly news for most punters with the S&P-ASX 200 ending the session down 1% to 4927.4 points.

And in yet more financial tinkering, the Australian Investment and Securities Commission gave yet another update on the short-selling situation.

ASIC said today its total ban on shorts would be lifted for anyone who had "placed portfolio securities into a securities lending program provided by an established securities lending business, and who wish to sell those securities before they have completed a recall of those securities from the program”

So far, the ASX says the short-selling ban hasn’t had an effect on volume of trades or the money changing hands, which was the fear of some who were against the ban.

Now, to the mining sector, where the day again saw some the companies divided up between the gainers and the wallowers, with little moderation in between.

The big boys proved susceptible to the illness sweeping the markets, with BHP Billiton falling a nasty 3.9% $1.47 to $36.40, while Rio Tinto was bruised by a $3.64 or 3.45% fall to $101.86.

In the mid-tier the falls were also on the harsher side. Fortescue Metals Group shed 25c or 3.9% to $6.21, while Paladin Energy shed 24c to $4.38 and Centennial Coal dropped 25c to $4.43.

At the junior end, the day proved harsh for Olympia Resources, which fell 2.6c to 3.3%, a 44% drop, while tin explorer YTC Resources – one of the best performing IPOs last year – shed 11c to 36c, a 23% drop.

Positive movers included Felix Resources, which lifted 86c to $17.90, a 5% jump, after a bill passed through the New South Wales parliament effectively opened the door for its Moolarben development.

And there’s been a lot of speculation about what’s going on at Minara Resources. The nickel miner’s shares closed at $1.15 on Tuesday and have since soared to a high of $1.86, before closing today at $1.81 – still up 44.5c today, a 33% jump, and on a day when nickel fell; only by $US9 to $16,993, but still a fall.

Other news of the day included Grange Resources’ planned merger with China-controlled iron ore pellet maker Australian Bulk Minerals.

The news gave Grange a tiny A1c lift to $1.90.

Finally, the boffins at UBS have released a widely-quoted and rather terrifying research note, which puts a gaping hole in the Australian budget of some $A26 billion.

“Based on projects where capital estimates have been provided, $33 billion of the required capital has been raised and spent, or is anticipated to come from cash flow. Subsequently, almost $26 billion of additional debt or equity is required to bring the remaining projects into production,” the analysts said.

The bank pointed the figure at a few high-cost, somewhat underfunded operations, including Grange and its Southdown project, Moly Mines’ Spinifex Ridge project, Aurox’s Balla Balla project, Sundance Resources’s Mbalam project, Arafura’s Nolan project and Marengo’s Yandera project.

So while demand may stay strong from China, the “cash and cash flow remain king”, UBS said.

Beyond these plays the news is not good. Australian miners need money and lots of it – at a time when, globally, credit is drying up faster than a puddle in the Great Sandy Desert.

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