With funds, especially those based in the US, forced to quit Qantas, the rush was on to find the next best thing, and what could be better than a company at the peak of the resources boom trading on a ridiculously low price/earnings (PE) ratio of around 11 times future earnings.
The non-appearance (so far) of a BHP move on Rio Tinto has seen some traders take their money off the table.
After astonishing overnight trade in London, which saw the dual-listed stock almost hit GBP40 a share, demand slowed today in Australia this morning, though the volume remained high.
Rio Tinto opened this morning at $94.91, before dipping to a low of $91.53. It then appeared to settle around the $93.00 mark, with more than 1.3 million shares changing hands in the first hour of business. The value of that business was an eye-catching $309 million.
There was no fresh comment from Rio Tinto after yesterday’s “speeding fine” response from the Australian Securities Exchange. Spokesmen for both companies are maintaining a firm stance of “no comment on market speculation”
But even if BHP doesn’t launch its much-speculated takeover bid, overseas hedge funds are having a field day in two ways on the Rio Tinto share register.
First, a foreign buyer gets exposure to a pure resource play at a time India is starting to rival China as an Asian, metal-consuming giant, posting routine double-digit growth rates and ensuring that metals prices remain higher for much longer than pessimists are predicting.
Second, the funds get exposure to one of the hottest currencies in the world today, the Australian dollar.
It is these factors, as well as speculation from a number of stockbroking firms and investment banks, which have compounded interest in Rio Tinto.
If the rationale behind a Rio raid is taken a step further, it is possible to even draw in issues such as all big resource companies, including BHP itself, being fair game for the hot money in hedge funds.
There is even the issue of both companies being diverted from day-to-day management matters as they go through the process of changing chief executives.
Some of these reasons to buy Rio Tinto are valid, and investors have responded accordingly. Some are nonsense, and merely part of the sales process used by investment banks to generate trading activity.
But until someone blinks and declares that a takeover bid is on, then all that investors can do is stand back and watch, or join in what is a highly speculative game.
