Iron ore and copper are both sitting at around six-year lows, putting pressure on all tiers of the industry.
Moody’s Investors Service warned that all metal producers would suffer earnings and cashflow deterioration this year.
“Companies with low-cost production profiles, solid liquidity positions, and acceptable debt maturity profiles likely have some run room,” Moody’s said.
“However, the ability to further reduce costs, cut back or defer capital spending, and employ other levers will be important considerations for ratings, given current market conditions.”
BHP Billiton has already flagged impairments of $US400-600 million ($A514-771 million) in its half-year results to be released on February 24.
The miner has also pledged to maintain or grow its progressive dividend.
“In order to maintain a solid A credit rating and a progressive dividend, quality projects may have to be delayed which in turn may bring into question the value of the sanctity of the progressive dividend itself,” Morgans said in a research note last week.
Rival Rio Tinto will report its full-year results next week and despite the slump in the iron ore price, has promised higher cash returns as recently as December.
“We think the capacity for Rio to pay higher dividends and/or to fund a buyback is far more leveraged to the health of the iron ore market relative to BHP,” Morgans said, reiterating its preference for BHP over Rio.
Arrium has already announced a $A1.3 billion impairment due to the closure of one of its two South Australian iron ore operations.
Iron ore producers Atlas Iron and Mount Gibson have warned of write-downs of up to $A900 million each, while BC Iron and Fortescue Metals Group are reviewing carrying values.
However, FMG chief financial officer Stephen Pearce said it was a normal review.
“We’re very comfortable with the asset carrying value we have on the balance sheet,” he told journalists last week.
FMG CEO Nev Power also confirmed last week that executive director Peter Meurs would return to the company “as we see the need in the business”
Iluka Resources, PanAust, Northern Iron and Millennium Minerals are among the other companies to pre-warn the market of write-downs.
Despite lower commodity prices, producers are being helped by weakness in the oil price and Australian dollar.
But ANZ Research said this is a double-edged sword as it makes it less likely that the market will see any voluntary supply cutbacks, pointing to a “supply tsunami”
“Falling energy prices and exchange rates are having a material impact on bottom lines, allowing producers to potentially ride out current price weaknesses,” ANZ said on Friday.
“With the likelihood of voluntary supply cost looking less likely by the day, we can’t see the market rebalancing in the short term while demand remains tepid.
“Markets with non-cost related constraints, such as nickel, zinc and to a lesser degree, copper stand out.”
On the events front in February, Investing in African Mining Indaba will be held in Cape Town next week, though it is believed that numbers will be well down on previous years.
On the other hand, the RIU Explorers Conference will be held in Fremantle later this month and the organisers report the exhibition has already sold out.
At the conference the Craig Oliver Award will be presented with this year’s nominees comprising Cassini Resources, Doray Minerals, Gindalbie Metals, Metals X, Northern Star Resources, OceanaGold Corporation, Orbis Gold and Renaissance Minerals.
Cassini is due to release an updated resource estimate for the Nebo-Babel deposit, while Doray will close its takeover of Mutiny Gold.
Also on the takeover front, Base Resources’ takeover offer for World Titanium Resources is due to lapse on Friday, but be unsuccessful.
It’s set to be a busy month for Poseidon Nickel as it finalises plans to begin mining at its Windarra nickel project.
Poseidon is due to deliver first nickel ore to BHP’s Leinster concentrator no later than this month.
The company also flagged a “substantial” resource upgrade at the Lake Johnston project to be released this month.