BASE METALS

Saxo has bullish outlook for metals in Q3

Us and Europe to help fuel metals demand

Oonagh Reidy
 Infrastructure and decarbonisation spending in Europe and the US will drive strong demand for metals in Q3

Infrastructure and decarbonisation spending in Europe and the US will drive strong demand for metals in Q3

Commenting in the bank's Q3 outlook, Hansen said while some economists believe the current boom in commodity prices is cyclical - rather than structural - and that demand is now slowing as credit tightens, developments across the commodities space should continue to lend support to prices.
 
"In metals, the combination of increased government spending on infrastructure and decarbonisation will continue to drive strong demand for metals including copper and iron ore—the key ingredient to make steel—as well as aluminium, zinc and even semi-industrial metals such as silver and platinum," said Hansen.
 
Rising inflation could also boost investor demand for commodities, he said.
 
"Rising inflation is likely to be longer-lasting than transitory, thereby creating continued demand from investors as they will need real assets such as commodities to hedge their portfolios. 
 
Zeroing in on Europe, Saxo's head of equity strategy Peter Ganry highlighted uranium mining as an area for investors to watch, "a bet that EU will designate nuclear power as a green technology".
 
Meanwhile, Saxo Markets strategist Eleanor Creagh pointed to the upcoming German elections as another potential tailwind for the decarbonisation thematic.
 
Germany's Green party has the chance to become the dominant party in national government for the first time in history, which Creagh said "provides an opportunity to pioneer a number of structural changes".
 
Core policy includes pledges to achieve a 70% reduction in greenhouse gases from their 1990 level by 2030, achieved through phasing out coal power, accelerating Germany's renewable energy transition, investment spending on green infrastructure and only allowing zero-emission cars from 2030 onwards. 
 
Meanwhile, Hansen's bullish view on industrial metals also extended to gold.
 
"Precious metals—both gold and silver—should continue to attract demand, especially if an expected rise in Treasury yields are driven by rising inflation expectations, thereby preventing real yields from rising too far," he added.

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