BASE METALS

Little upside for metals in S&P outlook

S&P Global Ratings has updated its metal price assumptions for 2019 and 2020

Staff reporter
Little upside for metals in S&P outlook

The outlook for nickel weakened over the December quarter, with its forecast downgraded.

Nickel has been downgraded from $13,500/t to $12,000/t for next year, and from $14,000/t to $12,500/t for 2020.

It should rise to $13,000/t in 2021.

S&P said the nickel outlook reflected the forward curve and its views that prices would continue to be depressed on the grounds of trade tensions between China and the US.

The 2019 outlook for copper remains at $6100/t, with 2020's forecast increased from $6200/t to $6300/t before a lift to $6500/t in 2021.

"We raised our mid-term copper price assumptions toward $6500/t because we believe those price levels address well medium-term fundamentals and risks," S&P said.

The expected 2019 price for zinc was lowered by $100/t to $2700/t, and from $2800/t to $2600/t in 2020.

"The revision mainly reflects our expectation for higher industry supply amid relatively tepid demand growth," S&P said.

S&P was far more bearish on base metals that the Australian government's Office of the Chief Economist, which published its latest figures just before Christmas.

Iron ore is expected to average $65/t, up from $60/t, next year, before dropping to $60/t in 2020.

S&P said the forecast reflected its expectation of balanced market fundamentals and steady demand.

The three-year outlooks for aluminium and gold were left unchanged at $2100/t and $1250 an ounce respectively.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the mining sector, brought to you by the Mining News Intelligence team.

editions

Mining Company ESG Index: Benchmarking the Future of Sustainable Mining

The Mining Company ESG Index report provides an in-depth evaluation of ESG performance of 61 of the world's largest mining companies. Using a robust framework, it assesses each company across 9 meticulously weighted indicators within 6 essential pillars.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Global Leadership Report 2024: Net Zero

Gain insights into decarbonisation trends and strategies from interviews with 20+ top mining executives and experts plus an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Project Pipeline Handbook 2024

View our 50 top mining projects, handpicked using a unique, objective selection process from a database of 450+ global assets.

editions

MiningNews.net Research Report 2024

Access a multi-pronged tool to identify critical risks and opportunities in Australia’s mining industry.