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To be clear, Harold is not expecting an imminent return to a much stronger nickel price, far less a return to the halcyon days of 2007 and 2008.
But it now feels more to him like it did in the years approaching the last period of nickel price strength than it has been up until very recently.
With the market moving more towards balance, and with no projects such Ambatovy and Koniambo looming on the horizon – two very big nickel operations that came online in about 2012 and 2014 respectively – there’s some cause for cautious optimism.
Harold sees the price reaching $US5-6 per pound in 2017 as “plausible”, all things being equal.
Depending also on currency movements, plus the copper and cobalt prices, and assuming good feasibility results late this year from Panoramic’s Savannah North project, such price strength could put Harold’s company back on an operational footing.
That’s a lot of ifs, buts, and maybes, but that’s the life of a price-taker.
Savannah, then known as Sally Malay, first came into production in 2004 and was a key contributor to the $A114 million in dividends Panoramic began paying out in 2008.
Panoramic’s path to nickel production followed fellow ASX peers Mincor in 2001 and Independence in 2002, and preceded Western Areas in 2006.
While Mincor’s David Moore, Independence’s Chris Bonwick and Western Areas’ Julian Hanna have all since moved on, Harold could yet be involved in the sector for years to come given the big discovery in 2014 of Savannah North, 500m from the current Savannah mine.
The feasibility work at Savannah North involves possibilities such as shaft haulage, and the introduction of an Isa mill and Jamieson cells (and other processing plant) to enable production of separate nickel and copper concentrates.
Unsurprisingly these and other potential development initiatives reflect Panoramic’s key focus in lowering the cost structure of Savannah.
The big positives include the size of the resource, the established plant and mine, already developed stopes on the Savannah orebody ready to go into production, and an operating history at the project which de-risks a start-up.
All of which means Harold, the son of a Melbourne bootmaker, looks a good chance to have his second coming as a nickel miner!