Pebble
 
The already uncertain future of Pebble was rocked last year when 50% owner Anglo American announced its withdrawal, leaving junior Northern Dynasty Minerals with 100% of the massive deposit.
 
Since then, Northern Dynasty’s major shareholder, Rio Tinto, said it would review its holding in the junior company.
 
Northern Dynasty said Anglo’s withdrawal was not the “end of the road” for the project and it had already had “positive” preliminary discussions with other major mining companies.
 
The current measured and indicated resource estimate comprises 5.94 billion tonnes containing 55 billion pounds of copper, 67 million ounces of gold and 3.3Blb molybdenum, as well as an additional inferred 4.84Bt containing 26Blb copper, 40Moz gold and 2.3Blb molybdenum.
 
A preliminary assessment completed in 2011 found that over a 45-year mine life Pebble would yield a 14.2% pre-tax internal rate of return, a 6.2-year payback on initial capital investment of $US4.7 billion ($A5.3 billion) and a $6.1 billion pre-tax net present value at a 7% discount rate.
 
But the Alaskan project is facing heavy environmental opposition, including from the US Environmental Protection Agency, which last month released the final version of its Bristol Bay Watershed Assessment, which assessed the development of Pebble and other resources projects in Alaska.
 
Northern Dynasty slammed the assessment as “flawed” but noted the report did not include any recommendations or regulatory actions that would affect future development of Pebble.
 
Kamoa
 
Robert Friedland’s Ivanhoe Mines wowed the mining community early last year with details of its Kamoa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, catapulting the project to Africa’s largest high-grade copper discovery.
 
While it hasn’t been smooth sailing since then, Kamoa is progressing more positively than most.
 
Initially completing a preliminary economic assessment into a 5 million tonne per annum operation, the company planned to lift it to 7-7.5Mtpa for a subsequent study but later decided to focus on a more cost-effective start-up operation with 3Mtpa initial throughput.
 
Capital costs dropped from $2 billion to $1.4 billion, with production set to be 100,000tpa copper concentrate at C1 costs of $1.76 per pound, generating cash flow for an expansion in the fifth year, adding a further 8Mtpa capacity and an onsite smelter.
 
Total capital costs would be $7.5 billion, with the project generating a pre-tax net present value of $4.3 billion and a pre-tax internal rate of return of 18.5%.
 
Kamoa has an indicated resource of 739Mt at 2.67% copper for 43.5Blb copper and an inferred resource of 227Mt at 1.96% copper for 9.8Blb copper.
 
 
 
Cobre Panama
 
Since this time last year, Cobre Panama, which has measured, indicated and inferred resources of 51Blb copper and 13.8Moz gold, has changed hands after First Quantum Minerals acquired 80%-holder Inmet Mining for $C1.5 billion ($A1.53 billion).
 
Last week First Quantum released the results of a review for the Cobre Panama project.
 
The revised project has capital costs of $US6.4 billion, up from $6.2 billion, with first production slated for late 2017, pushed out from a former target of the first quarter of 2016.
 
The project will now have capacity of 70Mtpa for the first 10 years, around 17% higher than Inmet’s plan, with expansion to 100Mtpa thereafter.
 
Based on that, Cobre Panama is expected to produce around 320,000tpa copper, 20% higher than previously projected, over a 34-year mine life.
 
Udokan
 
The Udokan deposit in Russia was discovered in 1949. In 2008, Baikal Mining Company, a subsidiary of Metalloinvest Group, won the tender to develop it.
 
The project is estimated to hold 60% of Russia’s copper reserves with the most recent resource update in January 2013 returning measured, indicated and inferred resources of 2.3Bt at 1.06% copper for 24.6Mt contained copper.
 
The company plans to mine 1.8Bt at 1.07% copper via open pit and 479Mt at 1.01% copper via underground mining.
 
Fluor was appointed in October 2012 to complete a feasibility study, which was due to be completed by March last year but there has been no word on progress since February.
 
Reko Diq
 
Last year, MNP reported that arbitration proceedings over the Reko Diq project in Pakistan were underway but things have worsened since then.
 
Tethyan Copper Company, a 50:50 joint venture between Barrick Gold and Antofagasta, withdrew its request for a mining lease for the copper porphyry project in May but said it would seek monetary damages.
 
With capital costs of $3.3 billion for a 56-year operation, Reko Diq would have represented the largest ever foreign mining investment in Pakistan.
 
But the project has been stalled since late 2011 when the government of the province of Balochistan rejected a mining lease application.
 
“While we have long hoped to mine Reko Diq, as is Tethyan’s right, the conduct of Pakistan and Balochistan has made that goal impracticable,” Tethyan chief executive Tim Livesey said at the time of withdrawal.
 
“We will pursue our claims for monetary damages, including lost profits for the mining operations, in the international arbitrations.”
 
The proposed operation was set to produce around 200,000tpa copper and 250,000 ounces per annum of gold, based on resources of 5.9Bt grading 0.41% copper and 0.22 grams per tonne of gold.
 
Tampakan
 
Since the merger of Xstrata – the 62.5%-owner of Tampakan – and Glencore went through in May last year, Glencore boss Ivan Glasenberg has deprioritised Xstrata’s greenfields developments.
 
This was after Sagittarius Mines, the JV between Xstrata and Indophil Resources, had already delayed the project by at least three years to 2019.
 
After posting a $A107.5 million impairment on its 37.5% stake in September, Indophil noted it had pre-emptive rights over Glencore’s stake.
 
Macquarie last week initiated coverage on Indophil with an outperform rating and 22c price target, valuing Glencore’s stake at $120.5 million, while Indophil had cash of more than $217 million at the end of September.
 
One of the largest undeveloped copper deposits in Asia, Tampakan contains 15Mt copper and 17.6Moz gold and is projected to produce 375,000tpa copper and 360,000ozpa gold in its initial 17-year mine life.
 
Macquarie noted that the Philippines’ open pit mining ban remained the project’s biggest hurdle.
 
Frieda
 
Another Xstrata project inherited and subsequently deprioritised by Glencore, the future looked uncertain for Frieda in Papua New Guinea, until PanAust acquired it for $125 million in November.
 
A 2012 feasibility study flagged capital costs of $US5.6 billion but PanAust said the proposed development was too big and its early due diligence had indicated capital costs of $1.5-1.8 billion for a scaled back development of 24Mtpa, down from 64Mtpa.
 
Under PanAust’s plans, mining will focus on the large Horse-Ivaal-Tukai deposit, producing more than 100,000t copper and 160,000oz gold in concentrate at cash costs of around $1.25/lb over an 18-year mine life.
 
A new feasibility study is due next year.
 
El Pachon
 
Yet another unloved former Xstrata asset, Glencore revealed following the merger that El Pachon in Argentina was another greenfields project that would come under scrutiny.
 
 
 
The project, which has a resource of 3.3Bt grading 0.47% copper for a contained 15Mt copper, was not listed for sale but had reduced its headcount in Argentina.
 
Xstrata previously had the project in feasibility stage and envisaged it could be in production as soon as 2016, with output of as much as 400,000tpa copper.
 
Las Bambas
 
Unlike the other former Xstrata assets, Glencore is being forced to sell the Las Bambas construction project in Peru, as a Chinese condition of the merger.
 
Last month the Wall Street Journal reported that a Chinese consortium was the only remaining bidder in the auction, which could fetch a price of up to $5 billion.
 
The $5.2 billion project is already under construction with first production due next year.
 
Commissioning is set to begin at the end of next year ahead of ramp-up during 2015 to 400,000tpa copper over the first five years.
 
Life of mine cash costs are expected to be $1.89/lb over the 20-year operation.
 
Wafi-Golpu
 
Wafi-Golpu in PNG is likely a long way off, with joint owners Newcrest Mining and Harmony Gold continuing to highlight its importance but slowing the pace of development.
 
In December, the partners committed to a feasibility study into an exploration shaft to further evaluate the underground potential of the project, with an investment decision expected later this year.
 
A previous prefeasibility study into a Golpu underground development returned capital costs of $4.8 billion for an operation producing 400,000oz gold and 250,000tpa copper for the first 15 years.
 
But the companies have indicated a preference for a smaller start-up and exploration shaft study manager WorleyParsons will complete a review of a lower capital expenditure option.
 
The total combined Wafi-Golpu resource is 28.5Moz gold and 9.06Mt copper but the partners have set an exploration target of 40Moz and 15Mt copper.
 
In December the JV said it was aiming to finalise an agreement with the government to provide a framework for the underground exploration phase, ongoing technical and economic studies and, ultimately, the future development and operation of the project.
 
Newcrest has allocated $A18-20 million of its 2014 financial year exploration budget to Wafi-Golpu.
 
Resolution
 
Resolution Copper Mining is 55%-owned by Rio Tinto with the balance held by BHP Billiton and the company owns the Resolution project in Arizona, a copper porphyry project discovered in 1996.
 
At 7000 feet below ground, the project has a resource of 1.6Bt at 1.47% copper and 0.037% molybdenum.
 
Resolution has land issues that have stifled development but it reached a milestone in November with the filing of the mine plan of operations with the US Forest Service, initiating a full review of the project, which is expected to take several months.
 
Since 2005, Resolution has been seeking approval to exchange 2400 acres of Forest Service land, which hosts the project for more than 5300 acres of conservation land held by the company, which is still under consideration by the US Congress.
 
More than $1 billion has already been invested, with capital costs for development expected to be at least $6 billion.
 
The project is expected to reach production in 2020 and with forecast production of 500,000tpa copper, is likely to be North America’s largest copper producer.
 
La Granja*
 
Rio Tinto has held La Granja in Peru since 2006 and says it is the largest undeveloped copper resource in Latin America, containing an estimated 2.8Bt at 0.51% copper and 0.11% zinc, based on a 0.3% copper cut-off grade.
 
Unlike Pebble, the company recently identified it and Resolution as its copper growth hopes.
 
A PFS was due to be completed by the end of last year and the company estimates the project could be in production, delivering up to 500,000tpa copper, by the end of 2017.
 
*Not on last year’s list.