1. Dryblower delivers his medical report on the mining industry (the patient is alive), January 4
Dryblower started off 2016 with a bang, delivering his assessment of the industry’s outlook for the year.
While he couldn’t have picked how bad it would get later in January and February, but his overall forecast of an improvement for 2016 proved to be spot on.
2. Dryblower unravels Clive and discovers what went wrong, April 18
Admittedly, trying to analyse where Clive Palmer went wrong was a tough task, but one that Dryblower tackled.
He suggested that all of Palmer’s financial problems could be traced back to the deal Palmer did with CITIC Pacific many years earlier.
3. Dryblower forecasts a weather change as Schumpeter’s Gale starts to blow, January 19
Dryblower pondered how “circular” capitalism could be with one owner of a business failing and a new owner re-building from the ruins – as is the case with many mining deals.
He tipped that there was much more to come as Schumpeter’s Gale blew through the mining industry with older companies to be rocked by the wind of economic change and a number of winners emerge.
4. Dryblower and the predictable crisis at Gindalbie, January 11
Gindalbie Metals’ admission that its partner Ansteel may not inject further funds into the Karara magnetite operation was no surprise to Dryblower.
He criticised Karara and other magnetite producers for not being transparent on capital or operating costs.
5. Dryblower dissects Simandou debacle, October 31
“If it was possible for a company to crawl into a kennel with its tail between its legs then Dryblower reckons Rio Tinto would be doing that today after admitting a complete, humiliating, and entirely predictable defeat at the Simandou iron ore project,” Dryblower wrote.
Of course, the saga is far from over for Rio and it won’t be the last time Dryblower broaches that topic.
6. Dryblower and the outrageous good fortune of David Flanagan, May 30
Dryblower described the former Atlas Iron boss as the “World’s Leading Optimist”, who, like many, misread the iron ore market.
He predicted that Atlas would be saved by a weaker Australian dollar if the iron ore price fell.
7. Dryblower on the Nickel West countdown, February 15
Ahead of BHP Billiton’s half-year results in February, Dryblower pondered the future of the company’s Nickel West business.
“If shareholders are forced to take a pay cut, the call for action over Nickel West will grow louder, perhaps forcing management to strike a deal with the WA government by pleading with a delay in the clean-up if nickel operations are simply suspended until prices recover,” he wrote.
8. Dryblower goes exploring, for cash, January 25
In light of the suspensions of the Yabulu nickel refinery and Woodie Woodie manganese mine, Dryblower worried miners did not have enough cash.
He suggested people should be following the companies which had cash and could ride out the downturn.
9. Dryblower and the fall-and-fall of BHP Billiton, February 29
Dryblower had a look at the decline of BHP Billiton after its shares fell below $A16.
“The core problem, which is showing in its heavy financial losses, surprise executive departures and project closures, is that BHP Billiton has lost its way. It has become a company behaving badly,” he wrote.
10. Dryblower and the bitter lessons of Arrium’s collapse, April 11
Dryblower reflected on the collapse of Arrium and pondered whether it would have an impact on the efforts to save Atlas Iron.
“The collapse of Arrium will ensure that Atlas shareholders vote in favour of the restructuring proposal because they know that a no-vote will send them down the same dead-end as Arrium,” he said.
Dryblower will be back on Tuesday with a brand new column.
